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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  September 23, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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hot as you me to cost of shoes. rbs with the biggest backed ipos since goldman sachs back in 1999. >> and 28 minutes we are going pmi.t germany's the expectation was for 51.2. it has been a steady decline all year. we will see if the negative trend continues. >> that is going to set the tone . european markets are opening up. the dax looking for a drop of a will we get a positive open on the ftse? caroline has the open. >> it is all about fundamentals.
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now it is about the economics. we are looking at how europe opens. we will see when these numbers are live. was slightly higher overall. we have plenty of data to get our feet -- our teeth into. china got us off to a good start. we did see a rosy glow to risk appetite. instead of a slight cooling we were expecting a balance of 50. we got unexpected growth overall. aboutare concerns employment in china. exports are looking lively indeed. we will see how that sets equities off. i think we were slow to open. let's see how it affects
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currency trade. 3/10 of 1%. australia is a big trading partner with china because it has all the minerals it can send across to china, who loved to suck up the commodities space. movement in the currency us. i want to look at a few key stocks. were sticking on commodities. we are going to wait for it to open. could see the stock fall as much as 10% on the open. full-year pretax guidance they were going to miss to 60 million pounds. they say the first half was extremely disappointing. they say significant supply chain challenges.
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they make splenda. they are seeing competition start to eu road. -- to a road. -- erode. tesco falling again. dropped the chief finance officer faster than expected. the ceo came on a month early. to they are bringing the cfo try to get a grip on the crisis meeting into tesco. shire off by more than five and a half percent. i am sure you will be talking about these inversion deals quite a lot. u.s. companies making the most of the tax. what will happen to the deal? merrill lynch will still go for
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worry they won't eat up shire. to clamp down on those deals. have a lower open. just getting some news that israel has sought down as. warplane near the border. geopolitics a big theme. markets open lower. israel shoots down us. warplane near the border. let me bring you french pmi. french given them french taketh away. it comes in at 48 .8. the bar was low at 47 expected. here is the miss. markets come in at 49.4. they miss on the composition as well.
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a little more perspective on today's trading with the head of european equities. he oversees $28 billion in assets. welcome to the show. a busy start to the trading day. got much detail, but geopolitics over the last few months, russian sanctions haven't really weighed on markets at all, have they? >> it has in a little volatile. -- has been a little volatile. desensitizekind of those types of events. it was more the ukrainian situation in the early part of the year that has weighed on consumer sentiment a bit. i think that is where the european numbers have been a bit softer. >> we are seeing at least some of the french data this morning. the euro is trending a lot lower at the moment.
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this trend to higher numbers for europe? >> as the year progresses. the first quarter was mired in downgrade because the currency was too strong. the q2 numbers came roughly in line. the currency didn't have too much impact at that point because it had already started to weekend. can. we started to get the translation because they would translate back into euros, which would help. more importantly, as the quarter's progress as the result of a lower euro versus the dollar, european exports become more competitive. >> it may also help there is
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talk of mario draghi doing more at the ecb. 82.6 billion euros was to take up. take-upbehind the low for you? guess.ink it was a i don't think there was any real certainty. it was it was the reason lower was because the take-up was before the asset quality sober.by the ecb is not we don't know the exact date. a european bank and you don't know what they are you have between now and the end of the year -- you would wait for the certainty of what the ecb wants between now and then. policy?does it mean for before we move on, i want to the move.a stock on stocks down 17%.
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the stock is getting punished. they have said first-half performance have been extremely disappointing. investors are disappointed as well. stay with me for more on that particular move. we are back with more on the move.
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>> welcome back. had some breaking news on
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israel. the nation's army is saying it ont down a syrian warplane the border. what do we know? >> i spoke to the israeli army spokesman. he told me this is a syrian military lay. .t wasn't from any rebel group it was inside israeli airspace when it was shot down with the patriot missile. it was shot down inside of israeli airspace. this definitely hasn't happened during the course of the israeli civil war. the army spokesman said he couldn't recall exactly, but there have been several incidents since the last war between israel and syria.
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certainly this is unprecedented in the current conflict in syria. that said, it doesn't mean syria was trying to attack israel. there is every possibility the >>ot may have got him off. --will get more news on your from you as it comes in. thank you for joining us. l. are going to talk about isi it appears to have recovered well. since has been positive 2011. the country has created what some might call of protect the bubble with the help of capital control. how long can the country go on like this? joining us is the nation's finance minister. thanks for joining us. how long can it go on like this? >> we are working towards
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lifting controls. we are making some progress. it is not only about the states of the old eggs. .- banks it is also about other obligations we have taken in the past. >> for the market pension funds have been prevented from investing abroad. extentmarkets, to some we could see bubbles begin to fall. a concern tohat you? >> it is a concern, but if we look back at what happened in 2008, i think implementation of capital controls was successful. we managed to protect the real on path for finding stability again.
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has come down. jobs were protected, and the real economy has been growing. it has been growing in some sectors in double-digit numbers. past you could at least say the controls have been successful. throwing a shadow on the economy. we need to lifted as soon as possible, but we need to be careful. >> you created an executive ordered to remove those controls. can you give us an update? where are they at? when are they going to start to be taken away? >> we appointed advisers earlier this year, and we are working with that group towards different parts of the problem. it's not always -- only about the following banks. it's about we need to take a broader.
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what we're trying to make sure is we don't have another dip in the economy when the controls are lifted. the solution must not only be economically feasible but also socially and politically acceptable in iceland. i think in the long term that is in everyone's interest. >> is that wishful thinking? priceu remove it without pressure? is that something you think you can do? >> i think it is manageable. yes. if you understand the forces pulling and pushing under the surface, if you understand inasmuch the tail as you can you can make the right decisions. that is what we are trying to do. we are making great progress. one has to keep in mind payments soe been made in the past,
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the problem is not increasing. it is decreasing. , the assets are there. it is mostly a balance of payment issue. some of thek about creditors. the administrators of one failed bank, they say they are optimistic they could start repaying bondholders soon. when do you think creditors can start to see repayments? >> creditors are already starting to see repayments. paid. wheneen fully can we take the next serious steps? we have to be careful. i don't want to make in exchange for a swift solution. what we're trying to make sure happens is we have an orderly process. asked to take
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another dip. i think seen from the creditors side we're all on the same boat. that is a resolution for the long-term. ahead? about another way are you still pondering forcing some of these lenders to bankruptcy by introducing what you call a sunset clause into iceland's bankruptcy act? is that something you consider? >> the compensation process cannot go on forever. 2008. es back to let's keep in mind they are holders of the new banks. two of the big banks are held by a group of creditors. really the ownership structure in a would ask for.
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the compensation process is unsuccessful, it's obvious we can continue endlessly. this will have to go through liquidation. all aroundt happens the world. >> you are saying bankruptcies are still on the agenda. >> it is an option you cannot exclude. that is one of the key factors we are very much focused on, to adhere to the rule of law. finance minister of iceland delivering a speech this morning. thank you for joining us. we look at equities. we opened lower. we are still lower. -- the dax isn down. no rest bite for these markets. we will talk about it after the break. stay with us.
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>> welcome back. let's get company news for you. after lowering the outlook between 230 and 245 million pounds. the performance has been disappointing, and it is facing intense competition with the zero calorie sweetener splenda. the luxury shoemaker plans to
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stake.25% according to people familiar they have been seeking a valuation of $1 billion for shoes. alan stewart will join as the chief financial officer. prophet margin. -- profit margin. what a job. let's move on. let's get kevin back. he is head of equities. you gave me a list of your picks. this one stood out. left on the. by one of the bond agencies. the -- lufthansa
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screens as the value. ofis trading on a multiple six times the forecast. the number is heavily downgraded. those low forecasts are based on the reset numbers. we have had a bit of a recovery air traffic. aviation is a third of the cost. >> this is clearly what you could call turbulence in this industry. the likes of air france have been striking for weeks now. a chance the whole
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sector gets pulled down? >> i think they differentiate between the airlines. it's part and parcel to the industry. it is disruptive. benefit for the economic recovery. >> spanish banks. why do you like spanish banks? >> a benefit from the falling bond yield we have seen in spain. they are benefiting from a steadily improving economy. spain is seeing surprising economic growth. the main reason is some of the domestic spanish banks as well. valuations -- we
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think they will return to precrisis levels. the reason being the spanish banking industry has consolidated massively. around 10.got it will probably consolidate further. business should be done on profitable terms. >> are you playing a recovery in spain? stimulus?aying ecb >> it is more of a recovery in spain. bondyou have got spanish yields approaching 2% they are not going to get much lower. >> spanish bond yields approaching 2%. the euro dollar keeps on slipping. a lot of people think that is going to help the economy. it helped japan. ?hy would that help europe >> japan made some big mistakes
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in the banking sector. i think the ecb has learned from mistakes. they are taking a different course of action. partlyas an economy because of demographics of japan. they have an aging population and don't allow immigration. europe might have an aging population, but it does allow immigration to fill in the void. >> thank you for joining us. stock calls. i am going to hold him to that. coming up we are moments away from the latest pmi ratings out of germany. we will bring you the biggest as soon as they cross. 1.2857.lar, you can follow me on twitter. we are back in two. stay with us.
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>> welcome back to bloomberg -- "on the move." your looking at german manufacturing we were looking for 51.2. services is better than expected. for 54.6.oking that means the german pmi comes in at 54. mixed to say the least. hans nichols, depending on
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which side you are looking at, at are then expected what are you going with? >> the german numbers are a reverse of france when manufacturing surprised on the upside. on the german side, manufacturing disappointing and services surprising. the important number to zero in on is the composite number. it is expansionary territory. when you look what happened in france, they are below 50. the composite number was below expectations and it was the fifth straight month they had a slowdown urine -- slowdown. there was concern they were both slowly trickling down together. germany had negative growth rate and france stayed flat. here we are seeing a divergence
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story again. germany is growing and france is shrinking. that must be disappointing. the french prime minister is in germany today and later he will be touring in hamburg. >> talk to me about how the visit is going in germany. pressure up front to reform. you might say the numbers are 50,d but they're all below that is contraction territory. >> it was all smiles from the germans yesterday in a vote of confidence. it was more important than what was, there and that was not a great deal of criticism or cajoling france to keep their budget deficit below the 3% of gdp. the story was the dog that didn't bark instead of what we
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got out of the meeting. there wasn't that much harshness intone. we will talk you through the morning on those breaking numbers. into today's trade and this is how things are shaping up. stocks are low across the board. dax down by 0.6%. that german pmi number at one dollar -- 1.2861. increase since april 2009, the acus publicly traded nitrogen fertilizer seller in the world. with therger talks u.s. companies called cs industries holdings. talks are at an early stage. no guarantee of a transaction. the promises of the
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synergies in ammonia and feedstocks. gas supplies, big news out of the u.s.. cracking down is on tax inversions. most famous deal that never took place, does this destroy any hopes of a deal in the future. some shareholders think so because they are down in astrazeneca by 5%. tate and lyle, look at that 17% lower. a profit warning today. it has operational supply chain issues and sites lower splenda sucorol issues. is tate andfall or
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lyle, you are a international, biggest gainer. december 2000nce seven. a roughly ill since tate and lyle. here are some top headlines. manufacturing has come in at 50.5, better than expected. the rebound from weaker growth in august. the dollar and copper rallied on the news. mario draghi says he won't sit back and wait for stimulus to reach the economy. he says the central bank may play a more active role in fighting stagnation. >> we are starting a transition ,or monetary -- monetary policy to a more active and controlled management of our balance sheet. >> the israeli army says it shot down a syrian warplane near the
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border. for more on that story, let's bring in elliott. any more details? it seems that we understand that the pilot of the syrian warplane were hit when they were turning around to go back into syrian airspace but they were shot down inside of israeli airspace by a missile. picturemed reports of a owing around on twitter, we can't confirm its veracity of two pilots with parachutes having ejected from a plane which was shot down. that's what the report says. i can't confirm that is truthful. i don't think this is likely to escalate.
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we may hear complaints from the syrians. theou have to say announcement of u.s. strikes in syria is a big move but not a surprising one. you think that is why markets shrugged this off continuously? >> there is also the fact that syria is not a big player in oil and gas markets internationally. it's not like an altercation with iran or a major oil producer. we know the united arab emmett -- united arab emirates was one of the u.s. allies. there, stocks are up as well. people don't see this as any kind of military escalation. they know that islamic state is there. they know that they are perhaps reducing their hold over these areas of territory. that could be something positive.
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certainly i don't think anyone is batting much of an eyelid at this. obama said they would not hesitate to strike inside of syria and that is what they have done. >> the oil market shrugging it off as well. $97 a barrel. we will bring it on now after the break. we will look at the biggest bank ipo since goldman sachs went public in 1999. details next.
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>> the biggest ipo in history, alibaba. another big share lined up in the u.s. today. citizens financial group. caroline hyde with more. how much is rbs selling to the public here? a matters to me, you and the u.k. government. >> 25% is on the blocks at least. $3.5 billion per share. price is $25 per share. generally you'll see this entire unit worth a cool $14 billion.
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we say $3.5 billion up for grabs which makes it the biggest initial share sale since 1999 with goldman sachs. this is a big player. talk to me about the price range. $25.o how much does that compare to other banks? thef you look at how much value of citizens compares to its look of assets, it is relatively cheap compared to its rivals. 0.7 times its tangible books. most of itsr than average rivals. average 0.9 on times is the average. why is it cheaper? it is not so profitable in general. the return on equity is 5%. they're trying to double that
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but they are off their competitors at the moment. they are also seeing sales on the decline. over the competition united states at citizens financial -- but mostly they failed the fed test back in march. overall they said the practices are estimating revenue worked quite cutting the mustard. ,e have to be fair to rbs hsbc's unit failed, they can come back in january but the height limits their dividends. the future looks pretty by -- bright, they're looking to scale up in the united states. on rbs back at home focusing tour print and us consumers. this hour,estion for
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what is behind the boom in ipo activity question mark citizens struggling in the u.s.. investor some respective. we are joined by gareth mccartney. i look at the appetite and i will throw some numbers. companies, $2 trillion worth of buybacks in this bull market. about shares declined by a billion dollars. is at the bottom line? >> this is a liquidity story. it's about the relative yield of equities against other assets. you are seeing an inflow into equities -- >> how long can this go on for? the dwindling supply of shares in the result of our owing low in the bond market and buying
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back my shares, when rates go up? >> we have to look at context. we are getting back now toward the levels, but the story will be, can the earnings cycle pick up? as these companies take a liquidity and you take a look at corporate earnings in europe and the u.s. reflect that liquidity and multiple strengths and that earnings growth will maintain the cycle. late 1990.ct on the you and i could start a cat food company, we would have no earnings and could float that empathy and retire. -- company and retire. compare that between some of these tech ipos we see. >> in europe we should look at the start as a yield driven story when the ipo market reopened in 2012. over the last 18 months you have
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seen a broadening out of sectors. now,nk what you are seeing and you look at the companies coming to market this year, there has been a broad spectrum of different sectors with different stories. the reality is there is still a demand for a differentiated investment case and with a shortage of growth in the secondary market, and you can demonstrate a growth story, the appetite is there. we're getting to the phase where investors are being increasingly selective. >> what happens for ubs now? >> broadly we focus on the equity market space. the bull is pretty strong and i think we have seen it broadening out in the capital market space. it is not just ipos, we seen the blocks market up 50% year on year. and strong demand in the
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financial sector. >> talk to me about the pipeline. the story and the last five years is a huge pipeline of private equity firms who wanted an out. does that continue? as you say, where are the supplies coming from? write it equity has been a material component of the ipos coming to market and a material component of the blocked market. there are first generations coming through and we are seeing governments as well being a key factor behind that weather from the ipo perspective or actually standing down into it assisting positions. and corporate restructuring their balance sheet and using the liquidity in the equity market as a way of refinancing themselves. >> final question. we look at the tight sector -- heck sector. and big ipo sells papers, for ups where is the rapid line
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right now? where is the big appetite? this is a bottom-up story. it is not sector specific. it's about bringing a company that gives you efrin she added exposure on one hand or a structural growth story. if you can bind those two factors, the demand will be there. i think it will be a more selective environment through the end of the year. the valuations been sensible? >> the market is always right and this is a balancing act. >> he is diplomatic isn't he? thanks for joining us. unicredit is said to be selling its stake in china. two u.s. buyout firms. to 2 billione up euros for unicredit. the second largest bank in
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eastern europe is predicting its first annual lock this year. ukraine ist in the causing bad debt charges to rise faster than expected. this is the second time that rai ffeisen has predicted losses. predicting losses between 200 30 and 245 million pounds. the third quarter has been extremely disappointing. if your upset him a the pulse is next. be talkingoing to about what happens next in france. we have a story there that if it was happening in new york, people would be up in arms about. largeke shutting down chunks of air france. can air france continue if it doesn't move to a low-cost
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model. that is a big topic for us. aen we are talking about topic you will be talking about shortly. tax in versions. the u.s. will change the regulations. the white house is on the warpath. we will make sure we don't get the burger king style tax inversions. m&aill have an effect on and corporate balance sheets. what are the implications? are european companies protected? >> we will talk about that as well. plenty of barking, we might get some biting. jack lew takes on tax inversions. policies aimed on keeping tax revenues at home. back in two. ♪ >> welcome back to "on the
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move." we're going to talk about a big scene in today's trades. the obama administration announced new regulations last night to make it more difficult for u.s. companies to move their headquarters overseas. our international correspondent hans nichols as the details. you've heard them barking for a while, are these finally the rules that make a difference? >> no, these are temporary measures that are meant to be
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put in place until there can be a comprehensive solution that congress buys in on. they're mostly retroactive with -- excuse me they are not retroactive. they do not apply to deals that have closed as of september 22. there could be what the white house and treasury says an additional 30 deals that could affect. the main provision is that it presents -- prevents hopscotch loans. this is when the parent company loans at a very low rate so it can acquire another company and redomicile. it is effecting share prices of astrazeneca. not it whether or applies to the burger king acquisition of tim horton. that is not entirely for conversions but that gives you a little bit of a flavor of what
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kinds of companies are doing this. mostly it is the health care and pharmaceutical sector. if you take the planned purchase ingogaden and re-domicile there for that. this is where one of these tax positions would take place. year. been a remarkable that is u.s. companies looking elsewhere. this may slow things down for the remainder of the year. very quickly -- >> very quickly let's talk dinner parties. if you talk dinner parties in d.c. you talk about corporate tax reform. where does this fit in? >> i would rather be at a london dinner party. it is so much more fun to talk about real estate and how much
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your friends made on a purchase. this is going to dominate and the lobby at the dinner party. this makes them a lot of money. whenever you have something in the regulatory sphere, lobbyists make a lot of money than they make more when it shifts to the legislative side. they can call their old bosses and get them to write letters and shape the debate. homes,so have some nice so we will go to washington and do a home to her. -- tour. >> let's settle for real estate. we know more about home prices than corporate taxes. that's it for "on the move." we had a low open and we stayed lower. the dax is .7% lower. estimates, low 60's across the board.
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and services, that implied contraction for those industries. it ain't pretty. yueh talk about the economy markets? you know where i am. back in two. ♪ .
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>> escalated airstrikes. the u.s. and arab allies. inside of syria for the first time. shutting the door. the u.s. is cracking down on companies. chooimmy chew steps -- steps up and will list on the london stock exchange while rbs moves aside from the u.s. units at citizens. ♪

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